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The two most powerful generals in Sudan have been at odds for weeks. They collaborated on a military coup just 18 months ago to thwart the country’s democratic transition.
These tensions between the commander of the armed forces, Gen. Abdel-Fattah Burhan, and the leader of the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, Gen. Mohammed Hamdan Dagalo, erupted over the weekend into an unprecedented conflict for control of the resource-rich country of more than 46 million people.
Despite increasing international diplomatic pressure, both men vowed not to negotiate or call a ceasefire, each of whom had tens of thousands of troops stationed just in Khartoum. It is a fatal setback for a nation at the meeting point of the Arab and African continents, which four years ago ended a long-standing dictator’s rule in part through largely peaceful public protests.
Check out how Sudan, a nation with a long history of coups, got here and what’s at risk.
WHAT HAPPENED BEFORE THE FIGHTING?
A return to the democratic transition that had been halted by the October 2021 coup had been the subject of negotiations in recent months.
The armed forces and the RSF signed a preliminary agreement with pro-democracy and civilian groups in December as a result of intensifying international and regional pressure. However, the internationally mediated agreement only offered general guidelines, leaving the most difficult political issues unresolved.
Tensions between Burhan and Dagalo increased as they struggled to come to a final agreement. How the RSF would be incorporated into the military and who would have ultimate authority over fighters and weapons are two major points of contention.
Dagalo attempted to portray himself as a supporter of the democratic transition even though his RSF participated in brutal crackdowns during tribal unrest and pro-democracy demonstrations. He criticized Burhan in March, claiming that military leaders were resistant to ceding control.
Analysts contend that Dagalo is attempting to redeem his paramilitary force’s reputation after it began as brutal militias involved in atrocities during the Darfur conflict.
HOW DID THE SITUATION GET OUT OF HAND?
The RSF started positioning its troops around the small town of Merowe, located north of the capital, on Wednesday. With its sizable airport, convenient location, and downstream electric dam on the Nile River, the town is strategically advantageous. The RSF sent additional forces into the nation’s capital and other regions the following day without the approval of the army’s top brass.
Fighting broke out at a military base south of Khartoum on Saturday morning, with each side accusing the other of starting the hostilities. Since then, in heavily populated areas of the capital and the neighboring city of Omdurman, the military and the RSF have engaged in combat using heavy weapons, such as armored vehicles and truck-mounted machine guns. Airstrikes by the military have repeatedly hit RSF bases.
By Monday, dozens of people had died and hundreds had been injured as a result of the fighting.
The fighting spread to other parts of the nation, including the strategically important Red Sea coast city of Port Sudan and the eastern regions along Ethiopia’s and Eritrea’s borders. There were also reports of fighting in the war-torn region of Darfur, where U.N. facilities were attacked and looted. According to the U.N., the Saturday clashes there resulted in the deaths of three World Food Program employees.
ARE THERE ANY CHANCE OF A CEASE-FIRE AND RETURN TO DIALOGUE?
There don’t seem to be many chances for a quick cease-fire. Dagalo and Burhan have dug in and are demanding that the other give up. The two generals may find it more difficult to resume talks given how intense the fighting has been.
The RSF and the military, on the other hand, have foreign supporters who unanimously called for an end to hostilities.
It’s also possible that the Muslim calendar will come into play. The fighting broke out in the final week of the Islamic holy month of Ramadan, which will soon come to an end with the three-day holiday of Eid al-Fitr. As a result of the violence, the population is becoming more and more dependent on home care.
There have been a lot of diplomatic contacts in the interim. Monday’s U.N. Security Council meeting is scheduled to cover Sudan.
According to U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, he spoke with Saudi Arabia’s and the United Arab Emirates’ foreign ministers about the developments in Sudan. The Saudi foreign minister claimed he spoke with Burhan and Dagalo separately on the phone and pleaded with them to halt “all kinds of military escalation.”
Both the military and the RSF have close ties to the monarchies of the Arab Gulf.
The Biden administration should encourage its allies in the region to push for peace, according to Cameron Hudson, a senior associate with the Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank and a former U.S. diplomat.
Without such pressure, he warned, “we might encounter a conflict that follows the same pattern as the war in Tigray (in Ethiopia).”
WHAT RESOURCES ARE AT STAKE AND WHO ARE THE FOREIGN ACTORS?
Russia was a major player during the decades-long rule of strongman Omar al-Bashir, who was overthrown in 2019. An initial agreement to construct a naval base on the Red Sea coast of Sudan was once made by Moscow.
Following al-Bashir’s removal, the US and other European countries began competing with Russia for influence in Sudan, a country with a wealth of natural resources, including gold, but also rife with civil wars and military takeovers. Even the Russian mercenary group Wagner has gained ground there in recent years.
Furthermore, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have developed close ties with Burhan and Dagalo. Armed forces and RSF personnel from Sudan have fought alongside the Saudi-led coalition in Yemen’s protracted civil war.
A second regional power, Egypt, also has close ties to the Sudanese military. The most recent war game between the two armies took place this month. When the clashes started on Saturday, Egyptian troops were conducting training exercises in a military facility in Sudan. They were apprehended by the RSF, who promised to send them back to Egypt.
The RSF manages significant gold mining areas, a significant source of income for the powerful group, but the military still controls the majority of the nation’s economy.
