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The United Nations said on Wednesday that 2023-2027 will almost certainly be the warmest five-year period ever observed as greenhouse gases and El Nino work together to raise temperatures.
According to the UN’s World Meteorological Organization, there is a two-thirds likelihood that one of the next five years could see global temperatures exceed the more aggressive objective outlined in the Paris climate agreements.
All eight of the warmest years ever measured fell between 2015 and 2022, but temperatures are expected to rise much more as climate change quickens.
The WMO stated that there is a 98 percent chance that at least one of the upcoming five years and the five-year span overall will be the warmest on record.
Countries agreed to limit global warming to “well below” two degrees Celsius over normal levels estimated between 1850 and 1900 — and 1.5C if possible — as part of the 2015 Paris Agreement.
The average worldwide temperature in 2022 was 1.15C higher than it was between 1850 and 1900.
With a range of 1.1C to 1.8C predicted for each of those five years, the WMO stated that there is a 66 percent likelihood that annual global surface temperatures will exceed 1.5C over pre-industrial levels for at least one of the years 2023–2027.
‘Uncharted territory’
While this does not imply that the globe would consistently surpass the Paris target, WMO chief Petteri Taalas warned that “we will breach the 1.5C level on a temporary basis with increasing frequency.”
“In the upcoming months, a rising El Nino is anticipated to develop, and this, along with human-caused climate change, will push global temperatures into unprecedented territory.
The effects on human health, food security, water management, and the environment will be significant. We have to be ready.
El Nino is the term used to describe the widespread increase in surface temperatures in the eastern and central equatorial Pacific Ocean. Typically, the meteorological phenomena happens every two to seven years.
Between El Nino and La Nina, which is its antipode, there are neutral conditions.
By the end of July, there was a 60% possibility of an El Nino forming, and by the end of September, there was an 80% likelihood.
El Nino usually raises global temperatures in the year immediately after its onset, which in this cycle would be 2024.
The eight warmest years on record have all occurred from 2015 onward, with 2016 being the warmest. This is despite the cooling effect of La Nina conditions throughout much of the past three years.
So-called greenhouse gases, which are at an all-time high, are responsible for trapping heat in the atmosphere.
Carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide are the main greenhouse gases.
Temperatures rising since 1960s
Since the 1960s, mean near-surface temperatures across land and water have risen globally.
Since 2015, when they were practically nonexistent, the likelihood of temperatures reaching 1.5C over the 1850–1990 average for a brief period has steadily increased.
The WMO’s principal center for yearly to ten-year climate predictions is the national weather agency of Great Britain, the Met Office.
The Met Office reported that while there is a 32 percent possibility that the entire five-year mean will exceed 1.5C, there is a 66 percent chance that one year between 2023 and 2027 will do so.
According to Met Office expert scientist Leon Hermanson, “Global mean temperatures are predicted to continue rising, pushing us further and further away from the climate we are used to.”
With the exception of Alaska, South Africa, South Asia, and some areas of Australia, temperatures in 2023 are predicted to be higher than the average for the period between 1991 and 2020 in almost all regions, according to the WMO.
It’s likely that some areas of the South Pacific Ocean will be colder than usual.
