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Nigerian gas: a player in the Maghreb’s energy conflict

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Even though the EU wants to be gas-free by the end of the decade, Morocco and Algeria are working on competing gas pipeline megaprojects that will connect them to Nigeria and send gas to Europe.

The most recent is the Nigeria-Morocco Gas Pipeline (NMGP), which will transport billions of cubic meters of Nigerian gas to the Cherifian kingdom and will traverse 13 African nations along the Atlantic coast. It must then be connected to the Maghreb Europe Gas Pipeline from there (GME).

There is no set date for when construction will begin: “It is planned to build the pipeline. The feasibility study stage is where we are at “Timipre Sylva, the oil minister for Nigeria, told AFP.

In order to strengthen relationships with African nations, King Mohammed VI introduced the project’s concept during a visit to Abuja in 2016.

Its resurgence can be attributed to Algiers’ decision, Africa’s top natural gas exporter, to cancel the GME contract, which supplied Spain with Algerian gas via Morocco, last year following the severing of diplomatic ties with Rabat.

These disagreements were sparked, in part, by the contentious issue of Western Sahara, a region where Rabat asserts its sovereignty and Algiers backs the Polisario Front, depriving Morocco of the Algerian gas it had assumed as a right of passage.

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Additionally, since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the geopolitical context surrounding the NMGP has been characterized by skyrocketing hydrocarbon prices.

Although estimated to cost 23 billion euros, the construction of this massive gas pipeline is still dependent on “obtaining the agreement of the countries through which it will pass,” as the Nigerian Minister of Oil noted.

With the Gambia, Guinea-Bissau, Guinea, Sierra Leone, Ghana, Mauritania, and Senegal, as well as one with the Economic Community of Eastern European States, Rabat and Abuja signed seven memorandums of understanding by the end of 2022. North America (ECOWAS).

According to the Moroccan Office of Hydrocarbons and Mines, agreements “confirm the parties’ commitment to this strategic project” (ONHYM).

According to Moroccan geopolitics expert Jamal Machrouh, who also emphasized its “strategic interest for Europe,” Rabat is counting on Nigeria’s massive reserves to establish “a stable, predictable, and mutually profitable gas market” in Africa.

However, concerns are being raised when Brussels declares its intention to phase out fossil fuels over the medium term.

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“When it (the gas pipeline) is finished, we must keep score. Will we still want to use gas, specifically methane? “Josep Borrell, the head of European diplomacy, questioned recently in Rabat that Morocco has a significant potential for clean energy sources like hydrogen, wind, and solar.

The Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline (TSGP), which will once again connect Nigeria to Algeria through Niger at a cost of between 12 and 18 billion euros, is being relaunched at the same time that Rabat and Abuja’s cooperation is stepping up. Without specifying a start-up date, Algiers, Abuja, and Niamey signed a memorandum of understanding last July to make this 4,128 km long gas pipeline a reality.

The project, which was started in 2009, also aims to deliver Nigerian gas to Europe. When it does, it should be transported to Algeria, especially using the Transmed gas pipeline, which already connects the Algerian deposits to Italy via Tunisia.

On February 18 in Algiers, Algeria’s energy minister, Mohamed Arkab, said that technical studies were in progress. The three partners are currently “looking for donors,” according to Algerian expert Ahmed Tartar.

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According to Mr. Tartar, whose nation is the third supplier of natural gas to Europe, “we can estimate a delay of 2 to 3 years for the project’s completion” which “will meet a significant part of the future needs of Europe,” he assures AFP.

Geoff Porter, an analyst, points out the Sahelian region’s “great vulnerability to jihadist attacks” and the hostility “of local communities if they feel like they are being exploited for a project from which they derive no benefit.” These points temper optimism.

Another drawback is that, according to Moroccan researcher Machrouh, Europe, which is trying to get off of Russian gas, could not accept “a strong dependence on a single supplier,” whether Algerian or Moroccan.

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